Larry Levy:  A Hundred Years from Today

One way of determining the value of a game is to estimate what its staying power will be.  Will it still be getting steady play a year from now?  Two years?  Five?

These are difficult questions to answer and many games turn out to have shorter shelf lives than expected.  That makes it even tougher for folks who gaze into their crystal balls and try to figure out which games will survive ten or twenty years from now.

Well, a couple of months ago on the Geek, a fellow named Dave Lartigue decided to stop pussyfooting around.  Which games, Dave asked, do you think will be around one hundred years from now?

Even though answering such a question takes one from estimation to pure guesswork, in a way, the huge time period makes the analysis a bit easier.  You don’t have to try to predict future gaming preferences or how games will fare in the short term.  The only question is which games will have long-term staying power.

I gave Dave an answer back then and I thought I’d expand on it now.  With luck (and advances in medicine), some young gamer reading these words today will have the opportunity to see if I’m right!

Okay, let’s start with the easy cases:  the classic abstracts.  Go, Chess, and Shogi are hundreds, or maybe even thousands of years old.  They each have extensive fan bases and far-flung organizations to support them.  It is almost inconceivable that each of these great games won’t continue to be extremely popular 100 years from now.  Mancala is even older and has a myriad of versions that are played the world over.  It should survive as well.  Xiang Qi (Chinese Chess) also has a large player base and should make it.  Checkers is a much younger (and less respected) game, but it’s better thought of outside of the United States (probably because the American variant is one of the least skillful and exciting).  I expect some form of it will survive, at least in Europe.  Even Chinese Checkers (more properly known as Halma) could make it, principally due to its simplicity.

Then there are the abstract games that use dice.  Backgammon is a very old game, but it’s a twentieth century innovation, the doubling cube, that makes it a sure fire survivor in my opinion.  Pachisi, India’s national game, is a few millennia old and is many children’s first gaming experience.  It, too, should last into the twenty-second century.

Two more recent abstracts have lower odds of making it.  Othello is pretty much identical to Reversi, which is over a century old, but the game didn’t reach major league status until its “re-inventionâ€? in the early seventies.  Despite its long lineage, Othello’s popularity seems to be waning in recent years, making its survival somewhat less likely.  Another abstract that inspired a fad (although not as big a one as Othello’s) is Pente.  My guess is that no more than one of these games will be around in the next century (and both could well fizzle out).

Card games are next.  Even though the number of Bridge players is decreasing each year, I think the game will still be around 100 years from now.  Its organizations, its many tournaments, and its still significant player population bode well for this game.  Quite a large number of people make their living playing Bridge, which has got to help.  It also doesn’t hurt that it’s a great game.

Poker is another obvious choice.  Even before the latest craze, Poker’s popularity was as great as ever; now, of course, it’s probably at an all-time high.  I can’t imagine it not lasting for another century and probably quite a few more.

Other traditional card games should make it as well, particularly national games (like Skat).  Cribbage is still beloved by many and should stick around.  Rummy is so delightfully basic that I have to think several versions will remain (certainly Gin Rummy, probably basic Rummy, and maybe 500 Rum).  Canasta is iffier; I’d give it about even odds, but the more exotic varieties (like Samba and Bolivia) don’t stand a chance.  Hearts has shown great staying power and will live on.  Some other trick taking games have a reasonable shot.  Spades will probably make it, if only as Bridge’s little brother.  I’m not as sure about Whist, but I think it’s still widely played in some circles, so it at least has a chance.  Judging from the continued popularity of published games like Wizard, I have to think that Oh Hell has a very good chance of making it to 22nd century Heaven.  And 500 might make it as well, although probably only in Australia (where it’s more or less that country’s national card game).

Casino games have an obvious appeal and should continue into the next century.  It’s a good bet that Blackjack, Craps, Roulette, and possibly even Baccarat will all make it.

Dominoes are popular the world over (particularly so in Latin countries).  I’m afraid I don’t know enough about the different versions to be able to say which will live and which will die, but I’m sure some domino games currently played today will be around 100 years hence.

It gets more interesting when you start to consider published games.  Let’s begin with the older American designs.  And starting with one of the oldest, how about Pit?  I don’t see why not; it’s been around for over a century, I don’t see why it couldn’t manage 100 more years.  The game’s charming simplicity and excitement level should keep it going.  Not to mention the bell!

One of the few absolute locks to make it to 2106 has to be Monopoly.  The published version is already 70 years old and it’s more popular now than ever before.  The game is played the world over and there are several jillion themed versions, all of which serve to extend the game’s reach.  Even the most rabid Monopoly hater knows that it will be around for at least another hundred years (maybe that’s one reason why they hate).

Another lead pipe cinch is Scrabble.  It’s approaching its sixtieth birthday and is still going strong.  To many of its fans, it is the only word game and its extensive tournament structure should only help to keep it alive.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Scrabble is the only current word game to reach the 22nd century.

Clue has a decent chance.  It’s always been a bit of an oddball, as you wouldn’t think a deductive design could succeed as a mass marketed game, but it has, for sixty years.  I don’t really see what social or market forces would keep it from surviving.

Some games are so simple that you know they’re going to carry on.  One of those will undoubtedly be Battleship.  2006 is its 75th anniversary as a published game (its original title was Salvo) and the billions of paper and pencil games kids will play of this in the next 100 years shouldn’t keep it from appearing on the store shelves during all that time.

Along the same lines, what about Pachisi ripoffs (uh, variants) like Sorry and Trouble?  My inclination is to say no way, but Sorry’s been around since 1934.  That makes it even older than Monopoly!  Again, I can think of nothing that would keep a 70 year old game from continuing on another 100 years.  Trouble, on the other hand, is a newer design (mid-sixties) and always seemed to be overly gimmicky to me.  I doubt it’ll make it (sadly, I don’t think there will be any Pop-O-Matic games around in 2106).

Some children’s games will probably last.  Despite the temptation to mention Hungry Hungry Hippos, I’ll stick to the more tried and true designs like Candyland and Chutes and Ladders.  The much despised Candyland dates back to 1949 and parents continue to buy it for their children by the bushel.  C&L is much older than that, since it’s based on America’s first original published game, The Checkered Game of Life (1860), which itself is derived from the Royal Game of Goose (which dates back to 1600!).  I predict at least one of these classics makes it to the 22nd century.  Of Germany’s many great children’s games, the most likely to survive is probably Memory, a classic design if ever there was one

Yahtzee is 50 years old and is strongly based on the dice game Yacht, which at the very least dates back to the beginning of the twentieth century.  Simple rules, longevity, and a noisy dice cup—I say it stays.

I’ll be very happy if Careers makes it (well, I actually won’t be, since I seriously doubt I’ll be around, but you know what I mean!).  It’s 50 years old and has successfully survived several different versions and multiple publishers.  It’s also easily my favorite of the classic American roll-and-move games.  On the other hand, it’s always been kind of a poor relation to Monopoly in terms of popularity and the subject matter regularly becomes outdated.  I think it has an outside chance, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it.

Risk, on the other hand, has an excellent chance of surviving.  (I know, Risk is actually a French game, just like Clue is really of English origin, but those games are usually associated with the U.S.) It’s a great father/son game and the theme is a timeless one.  Sadly for gamers, I predict the version that will live on is the original.  Stratego might make it as well, but I think the odds are considerably shorter.

Among classic family games, The Game of Life sounds like the leading candidate.  On the other hand, it’s been in and out of publication throughout the years, despite its wholesome and attractive theme.  It’s got an outside chance, but I say thumbs down.

I have to believe that some form of roleplaying game will be around in 2106.  The genre has been around for over thirty years, so it isn’t some fad that’s going to fade away.  The most likely one to survive is good old Dungeons & Dragons.  It isn’t the best system, but it was the first, has always been the most popular, and outlasted the business and political blunders of its co-creator, Gary Gygax.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that some form of the trailblazer will still be around in a century (maybe AD&D 47.5!).

Trivia is universal, so some form of Trivial Pursuit should still be around (and will probably sell very well).  Again, in a field like this, the advantage of name recognition and being first should be enough to guarantee longevity.  It’s weird to think that the events of today’s day to day life may well be the source of next century’s Trivial Pursuit game (so pay attention!).

Other party-type games seem less likely to make it.  I’m sure there will be party games in 2106, but I see no reason to think they will include one of today’s current designs.

Finally, let’s get to the category that most of you will find most interesting, the designs that are usually considered “gamer’s gamesâ€?.  One of the earliest such titles that qualifies, Diplomacy, will almost certainly live on.  It’s fan base is sizable and very dedicated and the design is wonderfully elegant.  If it relied on face-to-face games, I’d never pick it (too long and too many participants required), but with postal and electronic Dip being so well established, it’s a lock.  This is the perfect example of a game that was designed to live through the years.

18xx games are another significant phenomenon of the last thirty years.  Despite their great complexity, their fans are just as dedicated as the Dip folks and there are tons of different games available, with new ones arriving literally every year.  These two facts make me think at least some of these games will live on (except by then, it may be 20xx!).

Acquire has a very good chance.  The game has been in constant publication for over 40 years and remains very popular.  Like Diplomacy, it has a basic elegance whose appeal stretches across generations.  Twixt, another 3M design released at the same time, also has a reasonable shot.  It’s one of the more popular abstract creations of the last half century and its simplicity makes it feel like it’s been around for centuries.

Wargaming will undoubtedly be around 100 years from now, but will it be represented by any of the current designs?  I tend to think the answer is no.  I mean, when’s the last time you heard of anyone playing Tactics II?  And how many games of Stalingrad do you think were sold last year?  Even though wargamers demand depth and replayability in their games, this very requirement seems to limit the lifetime of these designs.  A decade ago, I would have guessed that Panzer Blitz and maybe Third Reich could have sufficient staying power, but they haven’t aged all that well.  If any game can make it, it would probably be Advanced Squad Leader, which continues to be well supported and has a rabid fan base.  But I can see it petering out as the decades fly by; my guess is it will not make the next century.

Maybe less complex and more attractive wargames will have a better chance.  The obvious choice is the Gamemaster series, principally Axis & Allies.  It certainly has a chance for survival, but I’m not sure it has a dedicated enough group of fans to keep it alive.  I suspect it won’t make it.

Hare & Tortoise has been in almost continuous print for over 30 years.  It’s also a very elegant design, so I think it has a reasonable shot.

I’m not at all certain about Can’t Stop, but it’s the kind of design that could very well survive another century.  I’d be more hopeful if the game had remained in continuous publication, but my gut feel is that somehow, it will make it.

Cosmic Encounter is a tempting choice, but in this case, my gut says no.  Despite its great acclaim, it’s never really been a big seller.  More to the point, who will champion the game once the Eon designers have taken their final trip to the Warp?  I can see a few efforts to keep it alive, but 100 years is a long time.  This may be one gaming classic that will be lost to the ravages of time.

It’s more of a long shot than the others, but Scotland Yard could conceivably make it (probably in an updated version).

Civilization and Advanced Civ are tough calls.  On the one hand, their fan base is considerable and very dedicated.  On the other hand, the games can take an entire weekend to play and who knows how tolerant future generations will be toward games of that length?  These are brilliant, groundbreaking designs, which could well have a long, long life, but for some reason, I don’t think either one will last to the 22nd century.

My reasoning with these games is to look at designs that have already passed the test of time.  For more modern games (say, since 1990), the prognostications become truly speculative.  But here are a few possibilities.

The most obvious and tempting choice is Settlers.  But I think it’s probably a riskier pick than you might think.  Much of its status depends upon its universality and its renown as a gateway game, but other, perhaps more suitable designs have appeared since its debut.  Still, it remains extremely popular throughout the world and the huge number of expansions and spinoffs bode well for the franchise.  I predict it will probably live on, but I’m far from certain.  (It’s far too early to predict if another great gateway game, Ticket to Ride, will have that kind of staying power.  However, the fact that different versions are being produced regularly is promising.)

Another Teuber design, Adel Verpflichtet, might conceivably make it.  Bluffing games usually have staying power and, 15 years after its smash debut, it’s still quite popular.  This time, I’ll lean toward the negative, but its survival wouldn’t shock me.

Speaking of bluffing, Liar’s Dice is for all intents and purposes a traditional game.  It’ll probably make it.

Carcassonne has many of the same attributes as Settlers, only less so.  On the other hand, it’s a simpler and less competitive design, which may prove to be good for long-term survival.  I’d say it’s got about a 50/50 chance.

I’d like to think a game like Bohnanza could make it, but my best guess would be to say no.  100 years is a long time for a filler to last, no matter how good it is.  I’d also like to think a great game like Puerto Rico could survive to the next century.  This is another one I’m pretty doubtful about, but a continuing fan base could keep it alive.

Sadly, I don’t think Die Macher will make it.  It’s too long a game, without a large enough legion of supporters.  Another one of the leading designs that will probably fall by the wayside is El Grande.  Although this game should have plenty of years left, I don’t see it lasting the full 100 years.

One of the toughest game categories to judge in terms of longevity are Collectible Card Games.  It seems hard to imagine a world without Magic: The Gathering and its ilk, but it seems like a fragile genre to me.  The backlash against the CCG economic model was almost immediate and seems to have grown with each passing year.  I’m just not sure publishers are going to be able to keep this bandwagon rolling.  Ten years, certainly; maybe twenty or thirty.  But a century seems a bit much.  Of course, if any game does make the grade, it almost certainly will be Magic, but my guess is it won’t survive.  Perhaps it’s just as well—by 2106, there might be as many as 20,000 to 30,000 different Magic cards.  Now that would be a tough deck building exercise!

Of all the designs from the last fifteen years, there are two that seem to me to have the best chance of making it to the next century.  One is Euphrat & Tigris.  The seriousness with which this game is played (even though it has many less serious fans) seems to bode well for it.  It’s also a great game, of course, and may be the closest thing to a classic design, like Chess, that Germany has produced.

The other one, which I really think has a good chance of surviving, is Age of Steam.  It’s similarity to the 18xx games should help.  It’s also an excellent design, with a very dedicated fan base.  Finally, it has shown itself very amenable to different versions, each of which alters the basic game play.  This should help to keep the game fresh and make it more likely that some version will survive.

By the way, I’ve mentioned games by Teuber and Knizia, among others.  What game of Kramer’s do I think has the best chance of survival?  Probably one of his earlier, simpler ones.  My best guess would be Heimlich & Co.  But as great a designer as Kramer is, the most likely outcome is that none of his wonderful games will make it to 2106.

Well, those are my best guesses, as speculative as they may be.  But is this exercise even crazier than it appears on the surface?  Isn’t it possible that life in the year 2106 will be so fundamentally different than it is today that the very foundations of my assumptions are false?  Maybe board and card games will vanish in favor of super-sophisticated computer games or some other completely different recreational activity.

Here’s my feeling about that.  Later this year, I’ll turn 50.  That’s half the time period in question.  Certainly things were very different during my childhood.  But not that different.  Adults got together to play Bridge or Mah Jongg (or even Mad Libs) rather than some party game, but the basic idea of people getting together for competition and good times was the same.  Teens didn’t have Magic or D&D to play, but they did spend plenty of time playing Risk or Monopoly.  I find it hard to believe that, barring some massive political upheaval or environmental disaster, the next century will produce such fundamental changes.  Friends will still be friends, companies will still be producing games, and gamers will still be enjoying innovative and engrossing designs a hundred years from today.

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