All these games can win, indeed, but I’d bet on Hey, That’s my Fish!, which is not in this list. It’s great game both for abstract lovers, with two players, and for families, with more. It’s a very cute edition, and surprisingly fun for an abstract.

Shadows Over Camelot ... is very fun to play…
What?

We know, Mario, we know.

I think either Thurn & Taxis or Mesopotamia will win, leaning heavily towards Thurn & Taxis.  I think almost everything else is an outside chance, but a lot of these will still make the recommended list or nominations.

Time to go look at recent SdJs again.  Niagra was a sure bet last time; Thurn & Taxis has everything going for it this year, and I’d make it a sure bet if it were… well… a less dry theme.  But the jury has picked games like El Grande before, and Thurn & Taxis has a very nice historical backstory behind it.

I’m not so sure about Hey, That’s my Fish!, Bruno.  My biggest problem with it is that to find another game like it (an abstract, mostly for two players) that’s won the SdJ, you have to go back 25 years to Focus.  It’s also essentially a filler (at least with respect to duration), and the last game like that to have won is Bluff back in ‘93.  It just doesn’t seem to fit the SdJ mold.

Ava, I disagree that Niagara was a sure bet last year.  Many of us SdJ handicappers were going with Around the World in 80 Days, which seemed to fit the “Ticket to Ride” model quite well.  Based on recent history (which is to say, since the SdJ jury had its significant membership change following the Torres award debacle), there seems to be two types of games that win the award:  the classic family game (TtR and Carcassonne best fit this, but Alhambra also fit it pretty well); and toy-like games (Villa Paletti and Niagara).  Obviously, Thurn und Taxis falls under the first category (a very fine fit) and Nacht der Magier fits the second one.  I’m leaning toward T&T for two reasons--the historical background should resonate very well in Germany and the jury may be reluctant to award a toy-like game two years in a row.  It’s also quite a good game, but that doesn’t always seem to be the main requirement.

Of the other games Rick mentions, I think Hacienda may have the best chance to get nominated.  Kramer has always done well with the SdJ and this is a game that fits the jury’s qualifications pretty well.  I don’t see it winning, however (the scoring rules are too involved).  Another HiG game that might replace Hacienda is Masons.  I think this is a longer shot, but if it is nominated, it would stand a decent chance of winning, as the jury might want to finally reward Colovini.

Speaking of long overdue recognition, Rick’s suggestion of Blue Moon City is very interesting.  It actually wouldn’t be a bad SdJ choice at all, but is the game really getting that kind of buzz in Germany?  Come to think of it, what games ARE getting a lot of play over there?  Do any of our foreign correspondents have any ideas of what games should be favored for the award?

Isn’t there usually a “token” 2-player game nominated? Which game might get that slot this year?

Larry, I disagree about Niagara.  Heh.  Everyone was betting on Around the World in 80 Days, so it was indeed a sure bet to them, but not to me and some (a few?) others.  I thought of Around the World in 80 Days as a runner-up, but Niagara I was sure would win---it was unique, rather pretty, very family, and did not involve travel (a resonance that would have been too close with Ticket to Ride the previous year, even though the two games are very different).

I think of Die Nacht der Magier as a runner up for this year as well, even though I loved my playings of it at the Gathering and think it would fit the SdJ fairly well and I could see it winning one of the other SdJ awards.  But its resonance is close to Niagara in terms of things being pushed around.

Ticket to Ride: Marklin I don’t think will win, because Ticket to Ride was but two years ago.

I had not considered Hacienda or Masons.  Masons, if it gets nominated, would be interesting to throw into the pool of nominees.

I don’t think Blue Moon, or anything involving Blue Moon, will make it into the SdJ.  I’m thinking mostly about theme, but also about the implications of some of the more specific details of Knizia’s built world.  Blue Moon City, as it occurs in a time of peace, stands some chance, but I don’t think very much of one.

A Partial Answer to Larry’s Question:

I’m not German, I don’t live in Germany, but
I do subscribe to Spielbox.  At the end of each
of their reviews are the marks out of 10 that
each member of the review panel gave to the game.
The composition of the panel varies in size and
composition from game to game, but a look at the
marks does give you an idea of how games are rated
by some of the influential critics in Germany.

Here are the scores for four of the games Rick
has picked out:

Thurn und Taxis:
10,9,9,9,8,8,8,8,7,7,7.  av. 8.2

Mesopotamia:
10,9,8,8,8,7,7,7,7,7.  av. 7.8

Blue Moon City:
8,8,8,8,8,7,7,7.  av. 7.6

Mauerbauer (Masons)
9,8,8,8,7,7,7,5,5.  av. 7.1

(And just to show that they can put the boot
in when they have a mind to,
Um Ru(h)m & Ehre
6,5,5,4,4,4,3.  av. 4.4)

Remember that the SdJ jury also chooses a ‘Children’s Game of the Year’ these days - an award that Nacht der Magier will run away with this year.  While it’s being touted around these parts as a good game for families, it does have a recommended age range of 6 and up which slides it more into eligibility for the kiddie prize…

My bet for SdJ this year is T&T.  HiG’s overdue for another nod and the game fits squarely into the mold the jury seems to look for.

Rick, I’m surprised to see Aquadukt on your list.  Does this mean you’ve come around to liking it more? :) My favourite playing of the game thus far was with 2 - very cutthroat yet enjoyable and fast-paced.

pk

Good column. I expect Hacienda to be nominated and I still think it has a shot to win.

For what its worth, if I were predicting the SdJ nominees/finalists, I’d pick the following

Die Nacht Der Magier
Thurn und Taxis
Zauber Stauber
Hey That’s My Fish

I wouldn’t be surprised if the following were nomintated

Cash n’ Guns
Aquadukt
Um Krone und Kragen (though the art hurts its chances)
Hacienda

Looking for a potential two player nominee?  How ‘bout Aton or Roma. 

And doesn’t it seem like there is always one game that flies under everyone’s radar leaving us scratching our heads when the list comes out?  Think Rumis from a few years back.

Interesting analysis, Ava.  I’ve yet to see the appeal of Niagara, but that’s neither here nor there, of course.  More to the point, last year I still considered Villa Paletti to be a one-time fluke and so hadn’t thought the “toy-game” to be a viable contender’s category.  80 Days wasn’t a “perfect” SdJ game, but it was a reasonable fit and seemed to me to be a strong favorite.  But now that a second toy-game has won, the category has to be considered, so Magier, which I wouldn’t have even thought of as a nominee a few years ago, must be given a real shot.

I agree with you about Marklin and find your thoughts about Blue Moon to be most interesting.  I hadn’t even considered the implications of the back story.

So I might as well predict what the five nominated games will be, along with what niche each pick falls into:

Thurn und Taxis (the “family game")

Die Nacht der Magier (the “toy-game”; note that I haven’t played this yet, I’m just going along with history and what most people have said)

Hacienda (the “gamer’s game”; Elasund might also fill this spot, although it’s pretty nasty)

Aton (Paul’s right--there’s usually a two-player game and this looks like the obvious choice, although That’s My Fish could serve as a mostly-two-player substitute, like Einfach Genial did a few years ago)

Olter Mare (I’ve run out of niches, but for some reason, Rick’s suggestion feels right.  If Masons--a Joe Huber favorite--wouldn’t make it three HiG games, I’d probably pick it instead.  Mesopotamia is another possibility.  I don’t think Shadows has a chance.)

Winner:  Thurn und Taxis

Thanks, Stuart.  The Spielbox ratings are always good indicators.  That would seem to strengthen the case for T&T, although Magier remains a wild card.  Maybe Magier becomes a strong favorite if it’s nominated, since (as Patrick says), if the Jury isn’t disposed to pick it, they could have always put it in the Children’s category.

Mesopotamia’s rating is surprisingly strong, so maybe it’s a more likely pick for the fifth spot than Oltremare.  I’ll stick with my first choices, though.

It’s too bad about Um Ru(h)m & Ehre; that’s one instance where I’d have preferred to be wrong about a game.  Still, it’s Geek rating is decent, so the news isn’t all bad.

Do you know how Hacienda fared in Spielbox, Stuart?

Good catch with Roma, Craig, I’d forgotten about that one.  That’s probably just as likely a two-player pick as Aton, although I’ll stick with my choice, as I think it fits the award slightly better (not that it really matters--two-player games never win).  Cash ‘n Guns is another possibility, particularly for the head-scratching, goofy, “what were they thinking of?” fifth slot.

All this talk about last year’s games, and no one talks about the new edition of Monopoly coming out!  (They’re hyping it as the American Edition, as people get to vote on national landmarks included...)

Sorry, I just had to post <something> and I’m totally out of the imported game loop and thus have little to say about the above-mentioned games.

The Spielbox Numbers for Hazienda:

8,8,7,7,7,7,7,6,6,6.  av. 6.9

More to the panel’s taste was Elasund.
Its numbers were 9,9,9,8,8,8,8,8,6.
That gives it an average of 8.1.

I can tell you what we’re playing in Berlin, Larry, although I don’t think it will be as scientifically accurate as Stuart’s Spielbox ratings report.
Thurn and Taxi is definitely the front runner, as I’ve heard it described by many here as a “must have.” Aquaduct has been played more than once in my group (including the prototype), although it might have something to do with having a regular who works for Schmidt Spiele.  Still it got a positive response as a family strategy game.
Also, Hacienda has been well-received.
As far as “toy-games,” since it has been re-released, what about Looping Louie?:-)

By the way, on the negative side, Shadows Over Camelot doesn’t seem to be anyone’s cup of tea, at least not in my circles (although personally, I’d love to try it).  How did that fare in the Spielbox ratings, Stuart?

Mauerbauer will win....

Thurn und Taxis will be nominated.....and yes, this means 2 nominations for HiG.

Don’t know Nacht der Magier, but it seems to generate a lot of buzzz

Last year saw Jambo, a 2-player game getting a nomination....what about Aton?

And what will be the nominated game that nobody heard of be for this year?  What will be last year’s Verflixxt?

DoW will go home empty-handed?

Since no one has mentioned a pure card game, I’ll place my bet on a favorite with my groups: Nottingham.  It probably won’t win, but would be a front-runner as the “token” card game to make the nominations list.  Quick, easy to learn, accomodates up to 7(!) players, and has a mitigated “take that” mechanism, in which a player always receives a card in return for one stolen--not to mention it’s by the designer of Bohnanza, a favorite among families here.