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Scott Tepper: That’s No Lady, That’s My Strife!
A friend of one of my friends has been to my house once or twice to attend my game days. He’s seen my game collection and knows how much I enjoy playing games, so I wasn’t surprised to receive the following email the other day. The names have been changed to protect the innocent:
| Hey Everyone,
Peter Playswell, Sam Sportsman and Grant Goodsport are haivng a Bunko Party and I have been asked to open it up to other Friends..... so Come On Out it’s really a good time..
|
I don’t think he realized that I’m not the ideal target for that sort of mailing. I am actually thrilled that when he was trying to expand their gaming network he thought of me. Unfortunately, a descriptive line like, “is a social game involving 100% luck and no skill (there are no decisions to be made)” is an immediate turnoff for me.
100% luck. Wow. What percentage of the population finds that sort of tagline attractive? To me that’s like saying “Come on over and hang your brain at the door. You’re not going to need it!” Now, don’t get the impression that I’m a strategy snob. While I’ll play pure strategy games, they don’t tend to be my favorites.
Since it seems that 100% chance doesn’t seem to be optimal to gamers, what is an acceptable amount of luck in a game? The first game that comes to my mind when I think of high luck is Fluxx. What would you say the prevalence of luck is in Fluxx: 85%? 90%? You do have decisions to make, but if the card you need was played right before your turn, you’re golden. Often you have very few decisions to make, and often, decisions you make will have little-to-no effect on the game as conditions can be immediately changed by the next player.
Looking at the top games on BoardGameGeek, you’ll see that the majority of them contain some element of chance:
Puerto Rico, the #1 game on the Geek has a small element of chance: the random turn-up of plantation tiles each round, as well as the Hacienda, which allows the drawing of a random plantation tile. I’d say, over the course of a game, this has about a 3% effect on the game. A particular revelation might make a slight difference, but this effect is defrayed over the length of the game.
Twilight Struggle, at #3 on BGG, uses both of the traditional elements of chance: dice and cards. The game is designed so that these factors adds variability to the game so that it won’t play out the same each time. The cards aren’t completely randomly shuffled, so the degree of luck is diluted. I’d put the effect of luck in Twilight Struggle at 26%
Tigris & Euphrates, which has a very strong #4 position on the Geek, is an interesting animal in this discussion. Your actions in T&E are definitely constrained to the tiles in your possession, but there is so much fluidity on the board and a range of things you can do with your tiles, that even though people can complain that they’re not getting the exact tiles that they want, all the tiles are useful. In the rare instance that you absolutely loathe the distribution of the tiles in your hand, you can exchange them. Overall, though, there is some luck to which tiles you draw, so I’d put the luck element in T&E at about 18%.
In Caylus, the #5 game on the Geek, the only chance involved is in determining the original start player order; after that, there is no luck at all, and this is equalized by differing amounts of starting money, so I’d put the percentage of chance in this game at .05%.
Shogun, which is currently at #10 on the Geek, can truly claim to have a unique (if you discount Wallenstein as basically the same game) mechanism of chance: the cube tower. How the cubes fall out of the tower can have a big impact on individual battles and thus positioning throughout the game. You can try to maximize your chances by increasing your cubes in areas, but anyone who has played Shogun has seen instances where someone who should have won going into an attack ends up losing due to either having their cubes trapped in the tower or seeing a surprising amount of opponent’s cubes emerge from the tower due to previous priming. I’d say that the cube tower results in something like a 22% chance of luck, which I’d say is pretty big. While the effect of more or fewer cubes coming out in specific battles balances out over time, there is always the element of chance in a battle with the possibility that the cubes don’t even out over time.
War of the Ring, at #11 on BGG, is where we really hit the big time of random fortune. Not only do the players navigate 96 event cards, but the game also uses a total of 21 dice. The masterful thing about the design of WotR is that even with all these elements of chance, strategy is extremely important in the game. I’d say that luck plays about a 40% role in the game.
So it’s not possible to make a direct correlation between the amount of luck in a game and its popularity in the gaming community. In the top 25 games on BGG, we even have Go which has 0% luck. (Would it be appropriate to say “Go figure” here?) I have heard commentary from one person that I respect who says chance introduced into a game gives people the ability to say, “Well, I didn’t do well because of luck. It’s not my fault that I lost.” Someone else has said something to the effect of “Chance introduced into a game will move the game along swifter than a game without it because in games without luck, players can get bogged down with analysis paralysis.”
My opinion is that the amount of chance doesn’t define the quality of a game, but rather, if properly controlled, can make the gaming experience more interesting and exciting. Lady luck may be fickle, but she’s never boring.
© 2008 Scott TepperComments:
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My mom likes no-decision games. I only introduce her to simple games, and those she plays fairly randomly. I think LCR would be just her kind of game. Now there’s a 100% luck game for you. I think most gamers overestimate the luck factor of Fluxx. There are ways to mitigate the random elements of the game. And the random elements even out over time. But since it’s a short game, “over time” means multiple plays instead of one play of a long, meaty euro. I’m not saying it’s a deep strategy game, but I’d put the luck factor in the 66-75% range. I would agree with your conclusion that “the amount of luck doesn’t define the quality of the game.” In my case, luck doesn’t seem to be a predictor, positive or negative, as to whether or not I’ll like a game. Posted by Jeff Wolfe on Jan 28, 2008 at 03:54 AM | #
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I think the issue of luck in games is one of the most misunderstood aspects of gaming. It’s my opinion that the majority of non-bbg-class people who play games do it for the social aspects, not the gaming aspects. The game is just the catalyst for social interactions, not an exercise to see who can create the largest economic engine out of a few wooden cubes. Although Bunco may not be a great game (I dunno, since I haven’t played it), in the case you describe it gets a bunch of people who may or may not know each other well sitting around a table and enjoying themselves (with the exception of the proto-gamer in the group!). Now, I agree that there are better games out there that serve the same purpose, but it’s doing the job well enough. It’s about socializing, not gaming. Posted by Kevin Wood on Jan 28, 2008 at 09:27 AM | #
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Kevin, I agree with your comments. I also think that a good percentage of “gamers” play for the social aspect as well. And my point wasn’t that games of 100% luck aren’t fun, just that they’re not fun for me. I wonder, though, would Bunco be as fun for the same people if there was no money involved? Similarly would casino slot machines still be “fun” if there were no monetary payout? I believe you don’t have to add a cash payout to a good game fun. Posted by Scott Tepper on Jan 28, 2008 at 09:51 AM | #
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http://weregeek.comicgenesis.com/d/20080128.html Posted by Kevin Wood on Jan 28, 2008 at 10:16 AM | #
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For some people, strategic thinking is not fun. Games like LCR, Bunko, and DVD trivia games are for them. I won’t ever understand it (the way I don’t understand how someone doesn’t like chocolate), but I am forced to admit that they’re out there. I’ve had some great gaming successes - I know a couple and the husband was up for lightly strategic games but the wife was a party gamer. In fact, she did host a bunko party which I attended. The evening was fun, but entirely due to the joking and interaction with others at my table as opposed to the game. But we worked on her, and eventually we had her playing Power Grid, which she enjoyed and won her first time playing! There is another couple, however, that won’t play anything with “math” (and “math” for them is the adding of three single-digit numbers) and I think they’re hopeless. Party-type non-thinking games aren’t necessarily awful, but when asked to play one I always think back to my pile of 100 or so games - every one of which is better - and wish we were playing one of them. Posted by Erin Sparks on Jan 28, 2008 at 10:25 AM | #
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Scott, with Shogun, in addition to the effects of the dice tower, there’s also a good deal of luck in the way that the actions come out. Sometimes you have to gamble that one action of the last five will occur before another one. The order can have a significant effect on your turn. There’s also some luck with the choosing of the Winter events. I actually think the game’s luck factor is pretty high. The combination of planning and reasonably high luck is why Shogun is a game I avoid. Posted by Larry Levy on Jan 28, 2008 at 11:14 AM | #
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Larry, you’re right about the Winter events, that does add some to the chance, but I have a different opinion about the way the actions come out. I don’t attribute that so much to chance, unless your opponents are randomly choosing their actions. I think there is less luck in simultaneous action choice games than some believe. Which is why I find Shogun to be an interesting and fun game. Posted by Scott Tepper on Jan 28, 2008 at 11:34 AM | #
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Another big luck factor in many of the low luck games that is almost always overlooked is determining seating order. Posted by Ray Petersen on Jan 28, 2008 at 11:35 AM | #
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I may be using incorrect terminology, Scott. I wasn’t referring to the players’ selections. What I meant was that there are 10 action cards which are randomly ordered each turn. At the start of the turn, only the first 5 are exposed. You have to do your planning based on this information. The order that the last 5 cards come out can have a significant effect on the game and that’s just based on luck. Obviously, players can try to play the percentages, but sometimes it just comes down to a 50/50 guess. Posted by Larry Levy on Jan 28, 2008 at 12:09 PM | #
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I play boardgames for the social experience. I enjoy the workout games with less luck offer, but I still enjoy the people more. It’s the whole reason I don’t play video games as often as I used to. Most of them are a solo experience. I used to play a lot online, but it’s just not as satisfying as a good lan party where you can talk trash and/or see the face of the person who are harming the most :) Posted by Dave Kudzma on Jan 28, 2008 at 04:02 PM | #
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Dave, that is exactly the reason I got into gaming. As much as I love pc games, sitting in a dark room alone for several hours is not all that great. Tabletop gaming, to me, is about the social experience. Posted by Kevin Wood on Jan 28, 2008 at 04:28 PM | #
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