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Scott Tepper: You Can’t Preorder Me Around!
It’s that time of year again that signals the changing of the seasons: The evenings are getting cooler, kids are heading back to school, and publishers are starting to take pre-orders for the games they’re going to release at Essen. Just this past week, Czech Board Games, hot off the success of last year’s Through the Ages, announced it was taking advance orders for its games, Laborigines & Jantaris.
Isn’t it just a little…presumptuous…for a game publisher to take pre-orders? It’s a hopeful declaration that the demand for the game will exceed supply. If you think about the whole premise, only a few conditions really come into play in situations with preorders: The publisher can produce a small or large supply of the game to release at Essen, it can choose to accept preorders or not, and the game can be a hit or a clunker. Note: these are the extremes. Most games offered are going to fall somewhere in between. (Also note that I’m not talking about GMT games. Those are a different animal. )
Let’s look at the main possibilities that result from the different combinations of these factors:
1) Good game, limited supply, no preorders
2) Good game, limited supply, preorders
3) Good game, large supply, no preorders
4) Good game, large supply, preorders
5) Inferior game, limited supply, no preorders
6) Inferior game, limited supply, preorders
7) Inferior game, large supply, no preorders
8) Inferior game, large supply, preorders
If a publisher has produced a great game in a large supply, then it’s going to sell a large amount of copies whether or not it’s accepted preorders. In this case, it doesn’t matter if you, the customer, pre-ordered the game or not. You’re still going to walk away with it.
So now we have these combinations left.
1) Good game, limited supply, no preorders
2) Good game, limited supply, preorders
5) Inferior game, limited supply, no preorders
6) Inferior game, limited supply, preorders
7) Inferior game, large supply, no preorders
8) Inferior game, large supply, preorders
If a publisher creates a crappy game and doesn’t accept preorders, it doesn’t matter whether it brought a small or huge supply to Essen as the same amount of customers (not very many) will buy the game. After you pull out those two unfortunate variations, only the following remain:
1) Good game, limited supply, no preorders
2) Good game, limited supply, preorders
6) Inferior game, limited supply, preorders
8) Inferior game, large supply, preorders
These four permutations make up the heart of the matter. Let’s look at #1 first: When a publisher produces only a small number, say, 500 copies of a game, it turns out to be a winner, and preorders were not offered. In this case, the publisher will achieve its goal of selling all the copies through word of mouth. Last year, Khronos was an example of this. If you showed up to the Matagot booth on Sunday of Spiel as I recall, you would find only a chair. All of the copies of its game had been sold.
Example #2, when preorders are accepted for a relatively small run of a good game, is in effect, identical to the first example for the publisher. The game will sell out through preorders. Fragor Games is the archetype for this model. This method of selling all of your inventory can usually be accomplished only by a publisher that has already demonstrated its capability of producing highly desirable games.
The big difference between these two examples is how they affect the customer. A game introduced at Essen may have some factors working against it like lower quality components, poor presentation skills of the publisher, or bad booth location, but these aspects can mostly be overcome by the quality of game. If a company makes an excellent game, it’s going to sell. So in the case of a good game, it boils down to who the publisher is going to sell the game to: The people who first showed up at the booth, or the people who first signed up to purchase the game?
Game collectors prefer, for the most part, the preorder scenario. They keep up on the prereleases, remain on the lookout for announcements of preorders (thank you BGN!) and sign up immediately. The nice thing about preorders is that if you’ve preordered a game, you’re generally not bound to purchase it. If, after Essen starts, you decide that the game isn’t one that you want to buy, you can simply decide not to pick up the game. Publishers who take preorders have learned to set a time limit for pickup. If a customer hasn’t fulfilled his option on a preordered game, usually by Friday, then the preorder is voided and the copy that was set aside will now be available for purchase by anyone who comes to the booth.
The downside to preorders is when the consumer isn’t aware of them. It can be terribly frustrating to show up at a booth, walk through a demo of a game, and decide to buy it, only to then learn that the huge pile of games on the floor has been completely reserved for other people. There is always the chance that not everyone who preordered a game will show up, but in general, publishers won’t take backup orders for unsold games. Then you have to race to the booth at the appointed release time hoping to beat the other people who are racing against you. In addition, hopefully you don’t want two games from two different publishers that are releasing some of its preorder stock at the same time.
So when a publisher makes what they truly think is an outstanding game, I wonder why they take preorders. Does it think that this will put more copies of the games into the hands of true gamers? My hypothesis isn’t quite so benevolent; when a game is good, it doesn’t matter to the publisher whether it allows preorders or not, so I tend to think that accepting preorders is more of a marketing tool. This brings us to the last couple of cases—when a publisher has made an inferior game and accepts preorders to unload its small or large supply of a game.
I’d like to think that no publisher consciously produces a stinky game, but if it has done enough playtesting, it probably has an indication of whether it has created a fantastic game (unbiased playtesters all say they can’t wait for the game to be produced so they can buy their own copy) or something mediocre (the playtesters say it’s a good game, and their word “good” can be exchanged with “meh”) by the time it gets to market. As the McDonald’s corporation can tell you, you don’t have to have the best product, but with the proper advertising, you can have the most popular product.
When a publisher announces that its game will be available for preorder, it’s understandable for gamers to sign up for the game because they don’t want to risk missing out on something good. I can’t think of many other industries that are like this, where the collector needs to sign up for a product without knowing its quality, but that may just be because I’m not familiar with many other collectibles.
I do know that this style of marketing exists outside the game industry. In addition to boardgames, I collect Patricia Breen glass Christmas ornaments. Because Breen’s ornaments are all made by hand, she has a limited production capacity every year. As a result, she is forced to restrict the quantities manufactured of each of her ornaments. Some are produced in the hundreds. Others are restricted to only 60-120 copies. On one hand, collectors of PB ornaments often wish that more of the heavily restricted designs were produced in larger quantities since there are never enough to fill demand. Many collectors, however, have discovered an upside to this type of marketing. If you are able to acquire one of the rarer ornaments, which are often allocated by lottery, you may be able sell them on Ebay for 150%-300% of their initial purchase price.
In one respect, this ornament business is a little better for the collector than the game industry. For the most part, ornament collectors can see a representative ornament or a picture of the same in a catalog when they place their orders for the year. Yes, to acquire most of the restricted ornaments you have to place your order with one of the few authorized retailers about a year before the ornament is actually released. Patricia Breen does produce the occasional ornaments that are listed with a “TBA” (to be announced) coloring, and if you order these, you won’t know the design until you receive the ornament, which is usually about eight months later. But the upside to this risk is that you can almost always recoup the money you spent if you don’t like the ornament by selling it on eBay.
Which brings me back to the two remaining examples:
6) Inferior game, limited supply, preorders
8) Inferior game, large supply, preorders
If, as Essen approaches, a publisher realizes that its game didn’t come out quite as well as intended, what can it do to push the sales of its game? Answer: Declare the game a limited supply and announce that it’s accepting preorders. By releasing only a general description of the game without providing specifics about the mechanics or components, the publisher can obfuscate the impressions that the potential customer may develop about the game. Without any negative information, people will automatically put in preorders, and thus will generate some orders for the publisher.
So all in all, I’m not quite sure how beneficial preordering is to the game consumer. In all fairness, I have to admit that as soon as I heard that Czech Board Games was accepting preorders, I jumped on it and added my name to the list. One year isn’t long enough for CBG to generate the kind of track record that Ystari and Eggertspiele have established, but I’m willing to take the risk. I wish I’ll have the time to wait and get run-throughs of the games on my want list while at Essen, but with the demoing that I’ll be doing, I’ll be lucky if I have enough time to run to the booths and pay for the games I’m interested in. I figure the worst case scenario is that I get stuck with a couple of dogs. Eventually I might learn my lesson, and of course…there’s always eBay.
Comments:
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You always have the option to make a pre-order, test the game in Essen and then ignore it if it sucks…
Posted by Carl Samuelsson on Sep 17, 2007 at 01:55 AM | #
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Great Article Scott. A trend that seems to be gaing popularity regarding pre-orders is enticing folks with extra stuff. The Hill Giant for Battlelore, Wolf for Tannhauser, White pieces for Age of Empires III, etc. It drives me crazy because I want to have a complete game, which you can’t have without pre-ordering. I know, there is always eBay, but folks should’nt have to go to a third party just to get a whole game. I also know many of these promo things are not nessary to play the core game and are variants. It still bugs me though… of course it does’nt bug me enough to stop making pre-orders! Peace Posted by Brent Lloyd on Sep 17, 2007 at 03:16 AM | #
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Very nice article… I wonder which way will it be this year. For the case of CBG you can trash all the options with large supply. From the deep nature of CBG (non-commercial association supporting Czech games and their authors), the games are produced in a very non-commercial way, with lots of the work normally done by the factory, here done by ourselves. Last year we were far from knowing what we are able to sell, the preordes were, in the first place, necessarry for us to know how many games to produce and to bring to Essen. An also an help in our work, that we really do it for the nternational gamers community, for the people who want to play our games. This year, we just wanted an advantage for the people who like us, like our games and want to support our idea. That is the main reason for preorder…
Posted by Pavel "Pogo" Prachar on Sep 17, 2007 at 06:20 AM | #
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While I agree that the preorder system could be used for someone sinister (or at least cynical) purposes by a publisher, I don’t think that’s really the case here, Scott. For most of the publishers who do this, who invariably have a small print run, I imagine it gives them a sense of confidence before the event and also allows them to transport the correct number of games to the fair (and the transportation costs and the effort to get them there aren’t trivial). For the Alan How-type of gamer (who isn’t a collector, but just buys a lot of games at Essen), it makes life easier as they can plan their frantic passages from vendor to vendor. It also gives them a sense of well being that they don’t have to worry about a title that got more attention than expected selling out. I think the major point is that there’s invariably a huge amount of information about these games before the fair. Getting to playtest a copy before buying is nice, but my understanding is that the conditions aren’t ideal at Essen to really get a good feel for the games. I imagine that there’s enough known about the games that most people’s buying decisions wouldn’t change whether or not they got a chance to try before they buy. Finally, I think most of the preorders come from companies with an established track record (such as R&D, Fragor, and Winsome). Last year was pretty unusual, with both CBG and Matagot successfully implementing preorders, but these were unusual games, where the themes were so enticing that they inspired enough pre-fair buzz to make this work. If this trend (unknown companies asking for preorders) continues, then I’ll come around to your way of thinking. For now, I just think it’s a way of making life easier for both the publishers and the dedicated gamer. Posted by Larry Levy on Sep 17, 2007 at 10:01 AM | #
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Good points, Larry, but don’t get me wrong. I’m not accusing any publisher (yet) of trying to pass off Spam as filet mignon. I’m just pointing out something for people to think about. I am going to disagree with your comment “there’s invariably a huge amount of information about these games before the fair.” Usually we get a paragraph or two overview about the game (and what would we get if it wasn’t for Eric’s hard work?) and a picture or two. But the best information for game consumers, the complete rules to the game, is rarely posted before Essen. I don’t think you would disagree that if a publisher wanted their customers to be well informed about their products, rules and detailed pictures of the components would be posted in advance. Posted by Scott Tepper on Sep 17, 2007 at 10:22 AM | #
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The part I don’t like (but understand to a certain extent) is that you have to go to Essen or know someone that doesn’t mind giving you some of their precious luggage space even if you are willing to pre-order. Postage is expensive, but compared to a flight and hotel, it’s trivial.
Posted by Scott Russell on Sep 17, 2007 at 02:15 PM | #
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Nice Article! Two comments: One interesting aspect of preorders: It seems like once someone who reviews games doees the preorder, they consider that they “have purchased” that game, and so they do not spend the time to play, review, and report on that game, instead focusing on other newer games. As a result, it may be weeks or months before that game may be reported on. Now for limited quantities, it may not matter, but for larger quantities, that game does not get the coverage that it could, which could be bad for the publisher. On the other hand, some preorders allow a collector to reserve a game for shipment after Essen, which allows a collector to get a game they might not be able to get if they cannot go to Essen and allows a publisher know how many to set aside presold, without carting them to Essen. Posted by Sterling Babcock on Sep 17, 2007 at 03:16 PM | #
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I have a major issue with companies that have extremely limited print runs, only sell via pre-order and will not consider selling to people who can’t make it to Essen. The foremost offender (at least to me) is Winsome, which, being at least an older company, should be able to handle publishing larger numbers and shipping to people who can not make it to Essen. I certainly understand how new publishers, or publishers who know that their products appeal to a small sub-niche of gamers would be interested in figuring out how much they are able to sell. Of course, I still think that they should be open to pre-orders from non-Essen attendees. Part of this is practical - if I am a publisher and I only sell to the people who can make it to Spiel, I have limited the sales range of my product. If I open it up to people beyond the Spiel attendee, I may add twice as many customers or maybe even more. Of course, shipping is a pain, so that could be a reasonable reason for avoiding taking orders from people who will not make it to Essen. The second reason is, of course, personal… I know that I will never make it to Essen during Spiel. My job pretty much makes this as impossible as my being a Catholic deacon would prevent me from attending the Gathering if I were invited (at least my understanding is that it always overlaps Holy Week). I read about great titles that rarely make it to the US or, if they do, it is with a hefty price tag attached. I was lucky to score a copy of Through the Ages, and I have gotten one of the Winsome Age of Steam maps via a reprint from Spielbox, but there are plenty that I would have liked to picked up, but had to just add to a “maybe I’ll stumble across a copy or a reprint someday” list. As far as the pre-Essen publicity, things are indeed much better than they were, but the info does not always make it to BGN quickly enough to arrange pick-ups (if you have a friend who is going) or other arrangements. There is a huge rush in the month before Spiel, and that can make planning a bit tough. Posted by David Reed on Sep 17, 2007 at 04:02 PM | #
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David - The GoF is NOT necessarily during Holy Week. The fact that it was this year was merely a coincidence. I’ve heard (again, I’m not a GoF’er myself) that the dates for next year have already been chosen, and they don’t conflict with Holy Week at all. Just an FYI. Alan doesn’t hate us Catholics, after all. :) Posted by Jon Theys on Sep 17, 2007 at 10:33 PM | #
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Jon - Thanks for the heads up… I was pretty sure that I had linked the dates over several years, but I freely admit to the possibility of being wrong. Anyhow, BGG.con remains the only big (at least in my estimation of big) gaming event that I am likely to attend any time soon. Posted by David Reed on Sep 18, 2007 at 09:33 AM | #
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I think there is one assumption you make here which is highly questionable - that publishers have a handle on the quality of their games. Major publishers, with more resources than the small companies for whom this whole pre-order thing is an issue, reliably release sub-par games. For them, there is clearly no upside to that (they tarnish the brand, the units don’t move, etc.) So realistically I don’t think you can say that part of the evaluation for a small-press game is that they know they have a stinker and are trying to unload them via pre-order. They just have a game they like that they are trying to sell. Part of this is just pricing, as your comparison to the Patricia Breen ornaments nicely illustrates. Clearly, she is leaving a fair amount of money “on the table”; she could increase prices significantly, and still move the entire run of the product. This would be the reaction you would usually expect when demand outstrips supply. But for a variety of reasons, she (and the game companies) may not wish to simply jack up prices: it’s riskier to the brand if some individual product doesn’t measure up to expectations, they may not want to price out the “little guy”, or may want to reward loyal customers without having a tiered pricing structure that would risk alienating new folks. So you get a lottery. We get pre-orders. Finding the right price point to move all the units without leaving money behind is obviously tricky, especially for a small game company. The small game companies want to be sure of moving everything and want to get their games out there, so maybe they err in favor of pricing things lower than they theoretically could if they just wanted to maximize profits. But, they want to reach opinion movers on the internet, or reward loyal customers, or whatever, so they accept pre-orders. Within the context of a game so small it’ll only be sold at Essen, it seems reasonable to me. Posted by Chris Farrell on Sep 21, 2007 at 12:34 PM | #
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I think Chris has hit it on the head, particularly with regard to pricing. Even if you have an item where you suspect the demand will far outstrip the supply, it’s dangerous to try to bring those in line by raising prices. Look at the reaction when Funagain offered Through the Ages for $100. There were immediate charges of price gouging, even as copies were being snapped up. (Ironically, Funagain couldn’t have made all that much on these games. They bought them at list, had to transport them across the Atlantic, which didn’t leave room for too much of a markup.) Rather than have to deal with that consumer backlash, which could really hurt your reputation, I think companies are wise to find other “fair” ways of meeting demand, like preorders. Posted by Larry Levy on Sep 21, 2007 at 03:26 PM | #
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Excellent comments, all… Although I do have a question, especially for Chris & Larry… Given that it seems you feel it is benevolent (and mind you, I’m not saying it isn’t) for publishers to allow and accept preorders for their games, do you think there should be some sort of...maybe a degree of obligation...for the publisher to make the rules of the game available at the same time so that the customers who are committing to ordering their product fully know what they are buying? Do you feel that a publisher who accepts preorders but does not post their game’s rules could possibly be hiding something? (wow, I’m sounding really cynical today, aren’t I?) Posted by Scott Tepper on Sep 21, 2007 at 03:46 PM | #
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Scott - Sure, they *could* be hiding something, but it seems incredibly unlikely. If a small-time publisher thought they had a stinker on their hands, they just wouldn’t publish it in the first place. Publishing a game like that is expensive and risky. Why even do it? I think all the small-press folks believe in their products (they may be misguided, but that’s a whole different issue). There is obviously no obligation for the publisher to publish rules. If you are wary of buying a product without seeing the rules, don’t buy it. Nobody is twisting your arm here; it’s your money. It may be in their best business interests to do so, but maybe they don’t have a website, maybe it’s not easy, maybe they think it’s not such a great idea to give away the rules for a simple game for free, or maybe they know the rules aren’t that well-written, but think people who sit down and are taught to play it will like it. There are plenty of reasons for not giving away the rules, some better than others. If you want more disclosure on the pre-order process, the only thing that will really matter is customer push-back. If a company can’t move 250-500 units without pre-releasing the rules, then they will. But you’re fighting the current on this one. There are enough collectors/indiscriminant buyers that if you get get some buzz going, you can sell about 250 units of anything at Essen, as long as the box and pieces look nice, the price is reasonable, and you can do an adequate sales job. Posted by Chris Farrell on Sep 21, 2007 at 04:14 PM | #
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Chris, You know, I don’t really believe that any of the publishers are actively trying to pass off manure, but your comment, “if you get get some buzz going, you can sell about 250 units of anything at Essen” exactly mirrors one of the points I was trying to make: Preording is a marketing tool. The more information we have about a product, the better consumers we will be. If publishers are going to ask customers to make a commitment to buy their product before they’ve gotten an adequate chance to examine it, surely it is not unreasonable for the same consumers to ask the publishers to give them a good idea of what they’re selling. If we as game consumers continue to just “sign up” whenever just a little information is made about a game, there’s not much incentive for publishers to give more information. The end result could just be called “Let The Buyer Beware”, but why should it be that way. My simple proposition is that anyone who goes to a booth at Essen(where the publisher has invited preorders) tells the vendor that they would like them to post the rules to their game in advance on their website, and that will encourage them to prepurchase their games in the future. If no one asks for the situation to be better for the consumer, it won’t be. Posted by Scott Tepper on Sep 21, 2007 at 04:40 PM | #
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You can read it many ways, but I think the best solution for everyone would be if game prices in general were not so insensitive to quality. This is not just a small-press problem, this seems like an industry-wide problem (and not just the game industry). Games are priced based on the size of the package they come in, not the quality of the game that package contains. Look at Mayfair’s (/Ksomos’) line, a good game like Pillars of the Earth costs the same as some marginal games like Nautilus or Anno 1502. Knizia games have the same list price as games from some guy. For ultra-niche products (i.e., not Settlers of Catan), I’d be much happier paying more for quality than to have the prices be consistant but the quality all over the place. I’d rather see Splotter or JKLM or whoever know that they can go the extra mile to really do all the finishing a game requires and know that people will pay, rather than being able to just get close and call it good enough. Anyway. I’d be happier if good games could command higher prices. But apparently, they can’t. Posted by Chris Farrell on Sep 21, 2007 at 05:17 PM | #
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Another point worth raising here (as pre-orders are almost universally the realm of the smaller publisher): These days, nearly EVERY good game released by a smaller publisher in limited quantities will soon be picked up by a larger publisher. I dare you to name a single generally-well-regarded title from a ‘little guy’ from 2004 on that hasn’t seen a reprint within a year. This, in a way, is the perfect solution to your problem, Scott. How to tell if a limited release is any good? Wait and see - if it sucks, it’ll vanish. If it doesn’t, it’ll get reprinted (often with better components and rules) and you can enjoy the game pre-order free. What is aggravating to me is not the pre-order concept, it’s now having quite the collection of what used to be limited games that ended up being reprinted. Granted I’m happy to own a Prinz Spiele copy of Jenseits von Theben, but when I look at the gorgeous implementation that Queen put together I just sigh. This year I thought I was determined to break this cycle, but I know that the shiny boxes and bright lights of the fair will blind me once again and I’ll come home with another load of white boxes and laser-printed labels… Sigh. pk Posted by Patrick Korner on Sep 21, 2007 at 05:59 PM | #
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Scott, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to ask that a company post their rules ahead of time if they are instituting a preorder system. It also wouldn’t surprise me if many publishers felt they were more or less obligated to do so. But I don’t think it should be required, nor do I think companies who don’t do this will be penalized if the conditions are right. Do you really think if a game like Amyitis had a preorder system that it would flop if the rules hadn’t been posted? Don’t you think Ystari’s perfect streak is enough to get players to preorder? And look at Czech Board Games last year. There was very little concrete information about Through the Ages and Graenaland (their rules STILL haven’t been posted online), and yet they sold like hotcakes. I do think preordering can be used to manipulate game buyers. I said as much last year about CBG and Matagot (who published Khronos), but my remarks were admiring rather than disappoving. These companies had some fascinating sounding gamew and they took advantage of our eagerness and the perceived shortage to sell them out quickly. That’s just being smart. I don’t think either one of them were trying hide anything and ironically, the one game which did have its rules posted ahead of time (Khronos) is the only one which has had serious complaints made about it. You may not like the preordering system, but I don’t think there’s anything sinister about it. There are a number of reasons why publishers may do it, but none of them involve them trying to hide anything. Any monkey business would be dealt with swiftly in the court of public opinion; we’re just too small a community for publishers to risk losing the consumer’s goodwill. Posted by Larry Levy on Sep 21, 2007 at 06:01 PM | #
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